According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on December 13th, the ADB forecasts that Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024 will be maintained at 6%. The bank also predicts Vietnam’s growth for 2023 to be 5.2%, a revision from the previous forecast of 5.8%. The weaker-than-expected recovery due to diminishing external demand will continue to hinder the growth pace of the industrial and service sectors, as well as slow down the recovery process of domestic employment and consumption.
The outlook for developing Asia remains optimistic despite global challenges. The growth forecast for 2023 has been adjusted upward from the September 2023 Asian Development Outlook, from 4.7% to 4.9%, due to strong domestic demand. The forecast for 2024 remains at 4.8%. Inflation in developing Asia is projected to decrease from 4.4% last year to a revised 3.5% this year, before slightly increasing to 3.6% in 2024.
The primary downside risks are related to higher interest rates for a longer period in advanced economies, which could cause financial instability. Supply disruptions could occur due to El Niño, and the Russia-Ukraine situation could exacerbate challenges in food and energy security, thereby stoking inflation.
Albert Park, Chief Economist at ADB, commented, “Asia continues to grow strongly despite a challenging global environment. Inflation in the region is also being gradually controlled. However, risks remain, from rising global interest rates to climate phenomena like El Niño. Governments in Asia and the Pacific need to remain vigilant to ensure that the economy is adaptable and sustains robust growth.”
The regional economy is expected to grow by 4.9% this year, compared to the previous forecast of 4.7% in September. Additionally, the ADB forecasts that regional economic growth in 2024 will be maintained at 4.8%.
Source: Nhip cau dau tu